Hope may be fading

https://www.malaysiakini.com/letters/345897

Done and dusted, the twin by-elections which were supposed to be the referendum to the leadership of Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak had only shown his grip on power has not loosened a bit despite of the beleaguering 1MDB scandal.

A number of analysts had offered their two sen on the outcomes. One which stands out is the hypothesis that the Chinese votes have returned to BN. The conjecture cannot be further from the truth. The Chinese are more principled and loyal than many would like to give credit to.

The colloquium of the ethnic on the country’s politics particularly in recent years is mostly centred on good governance instead of what benefit they would derive if they vote ‘strategically’. The Bersih 4 rally of last year bore testament to it.

If there is one thing the pair of by-elections indicated, it is the consolidation of voters. Lower voter turnouts were recorded in all recent by-elections and elections post-GE13 i.e. the Teluk Intan by-election (from 80.4 percent to 67.4 percent), Sarawak state election (reported to be 52 percent before closing but matched the 2011 election at 70 percent after vote count), the Sungai Besar by-election (from 88 percent to 74 percent) and the Kuala Kangsar by-election (from 84.1 percent to 72 percent).

There was only one constant in all cases – lower turnout equals to lower votes for the opposition. The impact was especially more significant in Chinese majority areas for most cases when outstation voters failed to return for voting. This showed the Chinese support did not return to BN. They just did not turn up.

The causality between lower turnout and lower votes for the oppositions is not surprising. In general, it is widely accepted that BN is largely supported by the older generation of voters compared to the oppositions.

The continued slide of votes for BN in the past two general elections was mainly attributed to two factors; the relentless effort by the younger generation who were rooted to the opposition in converting their elders in the GE12 and the massive turnout of these youngsters who took much trouble to return to their hometowns to exercise their rights in the GE13.

The heterogeneity of party alliance within a family is very common nowadays. Therefore, any drop in voter turnout due to the non-returning of working-age-voters would significantly impact the opposition as the older generation are mostly permanent dwellers in their respective hometowns. All in all, there is a very high possibility that both sides of the political divide have maxed out in their recruiting for fence-sitters.

Given the magnitude of the major scandals that plagued the country in recent years, namely the PKFZ and the 1MDB debacles, and also the switching of alliance by the ex-premier, Mahathir Mohamad, voters whose opinion could be swayed would have definitely been swayed. The only variables for changes now are the choices of newly registered voters and the gradual decline of older voters due to natural causes.

It is probable that the opposition had already reached their peak in GE13 as recent statistics have shown the trend of a slow but steady exodus of the qualified middle class who might have decided that flight is the better option instead of staying on to fight. Political fatigue factor is also weighing in and that could result in much lower turnout of voters in the next general election as evident in the recent ones.

Having said that, if everything remains constant, the regime would probably stay in power for a long time to come.